Teplice vs Baník Ostrava – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 2.20 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Baník Ostrava have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Teplice's 3 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Teplice winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Baník Ostrava 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Baník Ostrava 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.78 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.244 / defence 1.142 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.899 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Data: 36 Teplice games / 35 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 47% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Baník Ostrava 3.33. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Baník Ostrava 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 47% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Teplice 1.78 / Baník Ostrava 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.244 / def 1.142 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.899 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Teplice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Baník Ostrava xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 47% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 6W.
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in?
Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.24x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.33
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.18
1.40
Baník Ostrava xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Teplice and 1.40 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 13W 13D 15L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 12W 8D 21L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.27 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.07 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 13D 15L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Teplice's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.30 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Teplice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 45%, Baník Ostrava 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Teplice) and 40% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 30% of games; Baník Ostrava in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Teplice's recent matches and 45% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Teplice's recent games and 40% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.