Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mlada Boleslav (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Mlada Boleslav face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Zlin at Lokotrans Arena in Czech Liga (Relegation Group - 2). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Mlada Boleslav — last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zlin stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Mlada Boleslav have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Mlada Boleslav hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for Zlin and 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Mlada Boleslav 3–1 Zlin — a Mlada Boleslav win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Mlada Boleslav and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 4.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 61% versus Zlin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 61% | Zlin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.07 xG and Zlin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.060 / defence 0.996 | Zlin attack 0.787 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Zlin's defence rating of 1.416 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mlada Boleslav's projected output up. Zlin's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 60 games and Zlin's last 30.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 63% | Draw 22% | Zlin 15%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.59 | Draw 4.58 | Zlin 6.49. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 2 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 63% | Draw 22% | Zlin 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.07 / Zlin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.060 / def 0.996 | Zlin attack 0.787 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Zlin xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Group - 2) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 63% chance of winning, Zlin a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.06) and Zlin's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 60 games and Zlin's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.58
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.01
0.94
Zlin xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
2%
51.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.94 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 8W 12D 11L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Zlin's form line: 10W 7D 14L from 31 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.16 PPG, Zlin on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 15 home games (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 4W 3D 8L from their last 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.26 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 8W 12D 11L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Zlin away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.20 PPG; Zlin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won Zlin 5-9 Mlada Boleslav.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 67%, Zlin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Mlada Boleslav) and 47% (Zlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 33%; Zlin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Zlin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 47% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 47% of Zlin's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 73% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Zlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Arena, Relegation Group - 2, as Mlada Boleslav and Zlin drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.07 xG and Zlin 0.94 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Zlin attack 0.79 / defence 1.42, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 63% | Draw 22% | Zlin 15%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.16 PPG, Zlin 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.