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Poisson model rates Teplice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Teplice — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech than their overall form suggests.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 0.60 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Baník Ostrava have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Teplice's 2 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Teplice in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Baník Ostrava 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | Baník Ostrava 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.23 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.705 / defence 0.921 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.834 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Teplice's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Baník Ostrava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 42% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Baník Ostrava 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Baník Ostrava 40% BTTS from recent games.

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