Karviná 2-3 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Sparta Praha meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Městský Stadión this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský Stadión.
Sparta Praha (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sparta Praha, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2024, ended 1–4 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 55% versus Sparta Praha 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 57% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.04 xG and Sparta Praha 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.856 / defence 0.949 | Sparta Praha attack 1.190 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.150. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Karviná games / 51 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 30% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 42%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sparta Praha 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 50% | Sparta Praha 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 30% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Karviná 1.04 / Sparta Praha 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.856 / def 0.949 | Sparta Praha attack 1.190 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sparta Praha xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Karviná vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Karviná 2 - 3 Sparta Praha.
Where is Karviná vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Sparta Praha part of?
Karviná vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 30% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Karviná and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sparta Praha?
Record (5 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 5W.
What form are Karviná and Sparta Praha in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Karviná's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.19x) against Karviná's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
30%
3.35
28%
3.60
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.34
1.30
Sparta Praha xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.28
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Karviná and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Karviná and 1.30 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 15W 14D 27L from 56 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 40W 10D 6L across 56 games — 2.32 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 9W 8D 10L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 19W 4D 4L across 27 trips, a 2.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.18 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 61%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 40W 10D 6L in their last 56 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.30 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Karviná or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
0
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sparta Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 48%, Sparta Praha 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Karviná) and 59% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 33%; Karviná have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Karviná's recent matches and 59% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Karviná's recent games and 59% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Karviná 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Karviná 2-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.04 xG and Sparta Praha 1.30 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Sparta Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.80, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 30% | Draw 28% | Sparta Praha 42%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 57%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.