🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Current Form

Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.

Pardubice (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pardubice's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Sigma Olomouc 3W, Pardubice 1W, 3D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 68% versus Pardubice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 62% | Pardubice 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.75 xG and Pardubice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.037 / defence 1.178 | Pardubice attack 0.759 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.152. Data: 51 Sigma Olomouc games / 51 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 54% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 22%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Pardubice 4.55. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 90% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights