Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 40%, yet in-form Slovácko provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Slovácko travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Czech Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Slovácko — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.67 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Slovácko's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slovácko in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 50% versus Slovácko 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 50% | Slovácko 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.69 xG and Slovácko 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.153 / defence 1.121 | Slovácko attack 1.145 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.252. Data: 12 Sigma Olomouc games / 12 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 37%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Slovácko 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slovácko (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Slovácko 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.69 / Slovácko 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.153 / def 1.121 | Slovácko attack 1.145 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Slovácko xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 3 Slovácko.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 40% chance of winning, Slovácko a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.15x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
40%
2.49
23%
4.34
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.29
1.61
Slovácko xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.61 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 2.33 PPG from 12 outings (9W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.83 scored and 1.00 conceded. Sigma Olomouc's scoring rate against Slovácko's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Slovácko in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 9W 1D 2L in their last 12 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovácko away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 2.20 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Slovácko in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Slovácko have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sigma Olomouc at 60%, Slovácko at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sigma Olomouc and 80% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 100% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 80% of Slovácko's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Sigma Olomouc 0-3 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.69 xG and Slovácko 1.61 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Slovácko outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Slovácko attack 1.15 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 37%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 50%, Slovácko 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.