Karviná 1-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Slovan Liberec meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Karviná have posted 0W 4D 2L at Městský Stadión — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 1.30 PPG clear of Karviná in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Karviná have seen both teams score in 83% of their games, Slovan Liberec in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 58% versus Slovan Liberec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 42% | Slovan Liberec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.40 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.922 / defence 1.285 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.872 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.286. Data: 12 Karviná games / 14 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 37% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 38%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Slovan Liberec 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 83% | Slovan Liberec 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 37% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Karviná 1.40 / Slovan Liberec 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.922 / def 1.285 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.872 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Slovan Liberec xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Karviná vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Karviná 1 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Karviná vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 37% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Karviná and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Slovan Liberec in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.92) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.87x) against Karviná's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 12/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
37%
2.73
25%
3.99
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.84
1.44
Slovan Liberec xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Karviná and 1.44 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná's recent record stands at 0W 5D 7L from 12 games, a 0.42 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 5L across 12 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovan Liberec by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 0W 4D 2L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.08 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 5D 7L in their last 12 games (0.42 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovan Liberec's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.67 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
0
Draws
5
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Karviná 3-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Karviná, 67% for Slovan Liberec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 50% (Slovan Liberec).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Karviná's games and 67% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 50% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Karviná 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Karviná 1-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.40 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.44 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.92 / defence 1.28 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 37% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 38%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 42%, Slovan Liberec 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.42. Form held, and they took the win. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.