Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hradec Králové face Slavia Praha.

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Analysis & Preview

Slavia Praha travel to Malsovicka arena to take on Hradec Králové in Czech Liga (Championship Group - 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Slavia Praha — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 2.20 PPG, Slavia Praha 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hradec Králové, 3 for Slavia Praha and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2026, ended Hradec Králové 2–1 Slavia Praha — a Hradec Králové win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hradec Králové trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Slavia Praha trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 40% versus Slavia Praha 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 42% | Slavia Praha 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.19 xG and Slavia Praha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.021 / defence 0.796 | Slavia Praha attack 1.272 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.272, which lifts their away xG to 1.22. Hradec Králové have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Slavia Praha's projected output down. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 60 games and Slavia Praha's last 60.

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 35% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 36%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.90 | Draw 3.37 | Slavia Praha 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 20% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 70% (last 10 away games).

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