Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Championship Group - 4 as Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Plzen at Doosan Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plzen have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while FK Jablonec have managed just 0 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (68 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (68 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 50% versus FK Jablonec 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 52% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.50 xG and FK Jablonec 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.049 / defence 0.932 | FK Jablonec attack 1.008 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 60 Plzen games / 60 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 45% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 28%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | FK Jablonec 3.57. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Plzen 50% | FK Jablonec 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 4 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 45% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Plzen 1.50 / FK Jablonec 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.049 / def 0.932 | FK Jablonec attack 1.008 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Plzen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.13
FK Jablonec xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Plzen 5 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Championship Group - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 45% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Record (9 meetings): Plzen 6W | Draws 3 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in?
Plzen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.62
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.63
1.13
FK Jablonec xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Plzen and 1.13 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 40W 14D 14L from 68 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 21L across 68 games — 1.69 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 1.97 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 22W 7D 6L from 35 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 16W 4D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.49 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.51 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; FK Jablonec in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 40W 14D 14L in their last 68 games (1.97 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 34W 13D 21L in their last 68 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.09 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 54%, FK Jablonec 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Plzen) and 43% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 37%; FK Jablonec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Plzen's recent matches and 37% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Plzen's recent games and 43% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 5-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 5-0 at Doosan Arena, Championship Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.50 xG and FK Jablonec 1.13 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 45% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 28%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 52%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (68 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (68 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 1.97 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.