Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Group - 5 sees Plzen travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Plzen away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slavia Praha 2.20 PPG, Plzen 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Slavia Praha have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Plzen have managed just 2 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (68 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (68 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 46% versus Plzen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 56% | Plzen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.36 xG and Plzen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.255 / defence 0.753 | Plzen attack 1.035 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Slavia Praha games / 60 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 30% | Plzen 25%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Plzen 4.00. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 50% | Plzen 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 5 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 30% | Plzen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Slavia Praha 1.36 / Plzen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.255 / def 0.753 | Plzen attack 1.035 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Plzen xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Plzen part of?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen is a Championship Group - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 46% chance of winning, Plzen a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slavia Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Record (9 meetings): Slavia Praha 6W | Draws 1 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.25x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.37
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.29
0.94
Plzen xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
6%
15.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.94 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.46 PPG on a 52W 11D 5L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 40W 14D 14L from 68 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plzen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.81 PPG from 32 outings (29W 3D 0L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 17W 7D 8L from 32 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.88 scored and 1.03 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; Plzen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 52W 11D 5L in their last 68 games (2.46 PPG), while Plzen have gone 40W 14D 14L in their last 68 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Plzen away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.81 PPG; Plzen away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Plzen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Plzen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 44%, Plzen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Slavia Praha and 56% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Plzen in 41%; Plzen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 44% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Slavia Praha's matches and 56% of Plzen's.
Do Slavia Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Plzen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.36 xG and Plzen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.25 / defence 0.75 against Plzen attack 1.03 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 46% | Draw 30% | Plzen 25%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 56%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plzen's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.