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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Championship Group - 5 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at epet ARENA, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Hradec Králové — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Hradec Králové away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 2.20 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 7 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Hradec Králové, with 1 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Sparta Praha winning.

The historical record gives Sparta Praha a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 62% versus Hradec Králové 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 59% | Hradec Králové 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.86 xG and Hradec Králové 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.536 / defence 1.022 | Hradec Králové attack 1.046 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.536 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Sparta Praha games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 50% | Draw 24% | Hradec Králové 26%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Hradec Králové 3.85. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 60% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.

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