FK Jablonec 2-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Karviná meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion Střelnice — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Karviná (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FK Jablonec 1W, Karviná 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Karviná — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 48% versus Karviná 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 32% | Karviná 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.10 xG and Karviná 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.725 / defence 1.089 | Karviná attack 0.784 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 FK Jablonec games / 30 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 31% | Karviná 30%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Karviná 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 50% | Karviná 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 31% | Karviná 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG FK Jablonec 1.10 / Karviná 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.725 / def 1.089 | Karviná attack 0.784 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Karviná xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Karviná kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
FK Jablonec 2 - 0 Karviná.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Karviná part of?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 39% chance of winning, Karviná a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FK Jablonec and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 1 | Karviná 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Karviná (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.72) and Karviná's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.78x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.21
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.02
0.93
Karviná xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.93 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 31 games, going 4W 14D 13L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.58 PPG from 31 outings (3W 9D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.58 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 2W 8D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.47 points per game from 15 outings (2W 1D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 4W 14D 13L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while Karviná have gone 3W 9D 19L in their last 31 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Karviná away?
FK Jablonec's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 0.93 PPG; Karviná away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 53%, Karviná 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for FK Jablonec and 47% for Karviná.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 33% of games; Karviná in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 40% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 47% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Karviná tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Karviná in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Karviná 2-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.10 xG and Karviná 0.93 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.72 / defence 1.09 against Karviná attack 0.78 / defence 1.31, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 39% | Draw 31% | Karviná 30%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 32%, Karviná 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.84 PPG, Karviná 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.