FK Jablonec 0-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 0W 7D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pardubice have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for FK Jablonec, 0.60 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pardubice in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 50% versus Pardubice 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 33% | Pardubice 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.65 xG and Pardubice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.718 / defence 1.085 | Pardubice attack 0.875 / defence 1.994. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.086. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.994 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 FK Jablonec games / 30 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 51% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 23%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 4.35. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Pardubice 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 51% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG FK Jablonec 1.65 / Pardubice 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.718 / def 1.085 | Pardubice attack 0.875 / def 1.994 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pardubice xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
FK Jablonec 0 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 51% chance of winning, Pardubice a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 0.72x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.88x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
51%
1.94
25%
3.98
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.68
1.03
Pardubice xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
5%
22.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.03 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 4W 14D 12L from 30 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 16L across 30 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.80 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 3W 8D 4L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 3W 1D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.17 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 4W 14D 12L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 5W 9D 16L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Pardubice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.13 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
3
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Pardubice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for FK Jablonec, 80% for Pardubice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (FK Jablonec) and 87% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FK Jablonec's games and 80% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 87% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Pardubice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat FK Jablonec 0-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.65 xG and Pardubice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.72 / defence 1.08 against Pardubice attack 0.88 / defence 1.99, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 51% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 23%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 33%, Pardubice 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pardubice's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.87 PPG, Pardubice 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.