Zlin 3-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 2 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
Teplice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Teplice away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 0.90 PPG versus Teplice's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Zlin, 1 for Teplice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Teplice trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 58% versus Teplice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 58% | Teplice 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.47 xG and Teplice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.062 / defence 1.264 | Teplice attack 0.797 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Data: 30 Zlin games / 30 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 45% | Draw 27% | Teplice 28%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 3.57. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 60% | Teplice 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 45% | Draw 27% | Teplice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Zlin 1.47 / Teplice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.062 / def 1.264 | Teplice attack 0.797 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Zlin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Teplice xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Teplice kick off?
Zlin vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Zlin 3 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Zlin vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Teplice part of?
Zlin vs Teplice is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 45% chance of winning, Teplice a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zlin and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
Record (1 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Zlin and Teplice in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.06x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.75
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.56
1.09
Teplice xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Zlin and 1.09 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 7D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (8W 4D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.00 PPG, Teplice on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zlin's home form reads 6W 2D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (3W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 7D 16L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Teplice have gone 8W 4D 19L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Teplice away?
Zlin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.33 PPG; Teplice away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 5, Teplice have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Teplice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 60%, Teplice 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zlin and 53% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Teplice in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Zlin's recent matches and 40% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zlin's matches and 53% of Teplice's.
Do Zlin and Teplice tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Teplice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zlin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Teplice 3-0 at Stadion Letná, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.47 xG and Teplice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against Teplice attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 45% | Draw 27% | Teplice 28%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 58%, Teplice 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.00 PPG, Teplice 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.