Pardubice 2-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Karviná meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pardubice's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Karviná have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Karviná's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Pardubice against 0.90 for Karviná. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 59% and Karviná 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 66% | Karviná 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.31 xG and Karviná 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.870 / defence 1.323 | Karviná attack 0.786 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Pardubice games / 30 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 28% | Karviná 32%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Karviná 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Karviná 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 28% | Karviná 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Pardubice 1.31 / Karviná 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.870 / def 1.323 | Karviná attack 0.786 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Karviná xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Karviná kick off?
Pardubice vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Karviná?
Pardubice 2 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Pardubice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Karviná part of?
Pardubice vs Karviná is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 40% chance of winning, Karviná a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Karviná?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Karviná in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Karviná (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.79x) against Pardubice's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.58
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.44
1.13
Karviná xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.13 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 9D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.56 PPG from 32 outings (3W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Pardubice against 0.56 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 2W 8D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.40 points per game from 15 outings (2W 0D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.97 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Karviná in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 7W 9D 16L in their last 32 games (0.94 PPG), while Karviná have gone 3W 9D 20L in their last 32 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Karviná away?
Pardubice's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.93 PPG; Karviná away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pardubice won 4-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Pardubice
0
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 7, Karviná have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Pardubice 1-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Karviná?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 47%, Karviná 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Pardubice) and 40% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 40% of games; Karviná in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pardubice's recent matches and 33% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Pardubice's recent games and 40% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Karviná tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Karviná in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Karviná 2-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.31 xG and Karviná 1.13 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Karviná landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.87 / defence 1.32 against Karviná attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 40% | Draw 28% | Karviná 32%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 66%, Karviná 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.94 PPG, Karviná 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.