Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dolicek plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek this season.
Teplice (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Bohemians 1905 3W, Teplice 4W, 3D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2026, ended 1–3 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 1905 40% | Teplice 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.30 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.828 / defence 0.823 | Teplice attack 0.939 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 34 Bohemians 1905 games / 36 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Teplice 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.30 / Teplice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.828 / def 0.823 | Teplice attack 0.939 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Teplice xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 42% chance of winning, Teplice a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 3 | Teplice 4W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.94x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 34/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.61
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.37
1.07
Teplice xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.07 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 12W 9D 16L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 12W 13D 12L from 37 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.32 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 5W 8D 4L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.27 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Teplice in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Teplice have gone 12W 13D 12L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.00 PPG; Teplice away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Teplice in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 41%, Teplice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bohemians 1905) and 41% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 35%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 59% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 41% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.