Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Dolicek plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Dolicek than their overall form suggests.

Teplice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Bohemians 1905 3W, Teplice 4W, 3D.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2026, ended 1–3 with Teplice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 40% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 1905 40% | Teplice 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG and Teplice 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.848 / defence 0.650 | Teplice attack 1.083 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.162. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Bohemians 1905 games / 41 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 33% | Teplice 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Teplice 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.

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