Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 1.40 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Praha register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hradec Králové in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sparta Praha, 0 for Hradec Králové and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 59% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 57% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.46 xG and Hradec Králové 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 0.969 / defence 0.807 | Hradec Králové attack 0.838 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.368. Data: 39 Sparta Praha games / 39 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 21%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 4.76. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sparta Praha 80% | Hradec Králové 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Sparta Praha 1.46 / Hradec Králové 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 0.969 / def 0.807 | Hradec Králové attack 0.838 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Hradec Králové xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 46% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Praha 0W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 0.97x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
46%
2.17
33%
3.01
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
Hradec Králové xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
20.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.93 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 44 games, going 25W 12D 7L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (14W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sparta Praha's home form reads 14W 6D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.16 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 25W 12D 7L in their last 44 games (1.98 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 14W 16D 14L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.18 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Hradec Králové have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 64%, Hradec Králové 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sparta Praha) and 50% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sparta Praha's games and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Hradec Králové 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 2-1 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.46 xG and Hradec Králové 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Hradec Králové attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 46% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 21%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 57%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.