Pardubice 2-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians 1905 (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bohemians 1905 are 1.00 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pardubice, 4 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 42% versus Bohemians 1905 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Bohemians 1905 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.635 / defence 1.053 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.046 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.167. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Pardubice games / 57 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 46%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 1905 2.17. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 30% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Pardubice 0.80 / Bohemians 1905 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.635 / def 1.053 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.046 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bohemians 1905 xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Pardubice 2 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 22% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (7 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 4W.
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in?
Pardubice (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.64x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.05x) against Pardubice's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
22%
4.58
32%
3.14
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.09
1.28
Bohemians 1905 xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.9 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.28 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 14D 34L from 62 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 17W 22D 23L across 62 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Pardubice against 1.18 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 7W 9D 14L from 30 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 14D 34L in their last 62 games (0.90 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 22D 23L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
2
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 43%, Bohemians 1905 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pardubice) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 43% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pardubice's recent matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pardubice's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.64 / defence 1.05 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 22% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 46%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.90 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.