Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Plzen in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Plzen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Plzen's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plzen are 1.00 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava over their recent games (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Baník Ostrava, 4 for Plzen and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Baník Ostrava 0–2 Plzen — a Plzen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plzen — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 44% versus Plzen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Plzen 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG and Plzen 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.949 / defence 1.149 | Plzen attack 1.092 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 59 games and Plzen's last 59.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 26% | Draw 30% | Plzen 44%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.80 | Draw 3.39 | Plzen 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 30% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 26% | Draw 30% | Plzen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.10 / Plzen 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.949 / def 1.149 | Plzen attack 1.092 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Plzen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Plzen xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 26% chance of winning, Plzen a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.95x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.09x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 59 games and Plzen's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
26%
3.80
30%
3.39
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.58
1.48
Plzen xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.73
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.48 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 64 games, going 27W 12D 25L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 1.94 PPG from 64 outings (37W 13D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 16W 4D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.84 points per game from their last 31 away games (17W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.88 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 12D 25L in their last 64 games (1.45 PPG), while Plzen have gone 37W 13D 14L in their last 64 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.68 PPG; Plzen away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Plzen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Plzen have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen on 1 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 45%, Plzen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Baník Ostrava) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Plzen in 36%; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 29% of games; Plzen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Plzen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 48% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 77% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG and Plzen 1.48 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 26% | Draw 30% | Plzen 44%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Plzen 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.