Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wuhan Three Towns (77%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Wuhan Three Towns face Shenzhen Ruby FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Wuhan Three Towns versus Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 0W 0D 10L across their last 10 — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Wuhan Three Towns's favour (1.80 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Shenzhen Ruby FC managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Jul 2023, ended Wuhan Three Towns 3–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Wuhan Three Towns and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 59% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.79 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.059 / defence 0.992 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.749 / defence 1.727. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.727 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 62 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 61.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 77% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 | Draw 7.18 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 10.86. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (77%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 60% (last 10 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 29 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 77% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.79 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.059 / def 0.992 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.749 / def 1.727 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.79
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
55%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 29) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 77% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (1.06) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 2.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.75x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 62 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
77%
1.30
14%
7.18
9%
10.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.79
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.67
0.89
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.18
14%
Draw
10.86
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
6%
16.23
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
176.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.89 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 36W 12D 13L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form line: 12W 6D 43L from 61 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 6D 7L).
On the road, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 4D 22L from their last 30 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.84 scored and 2.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Shenzhen Ruby FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 36W 12D 13L in their last 61 games (1.97 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 43L in their last 61 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.90 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 5-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2023: Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 57%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Wuhan Three Towns and 70% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 70% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 80% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.79 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.89 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.73, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 77% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.