Meizhou Kejia 0-4 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Nantong Zhiyun travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Meizhou Kejia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantong Zhiyun stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 0 for Nantong Zhiyun and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Nantong Zhiyun in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 75% and Nantong Zhiyun 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 61% | Nantong Zhiyun 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.87 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.126 / defence 0.923 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.806 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.194. Data: 62 Meizhou Kejia games / 28 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Draw 22% | Nantong Zhiyun 17%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Nantong Zhiyun 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Meizhou Kejia (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Meizhou Kejia 80% | Nantong Zhiyun 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Draw 22% | Nantong Zhiyun 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.87 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.126 / def 0.923 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.806 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Meizhou Kejia 0 - 4 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 60% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 1 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 1.13x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
60%
1.65
22%
4.51
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.75
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
37.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 0.89 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 9W 7D 12L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Nantong Zhiyun's form line: 3W 10D 15L from 28 games, 0.68 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Meizhou Kejia are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantong Zhiyun.
Venue Form
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Meizhou Kejia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 6D 7L from 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.75 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 3W 10D 15L in their last 28 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.71 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Nantong Zhiyun won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
2
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2024, when Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Meizhou Kejia at 71%, Nantong Zhiyun at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 29% (Nantong Zhiyun).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 71% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 29% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nantong Zhiyun run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Meizhou Kejia 0-4 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.87 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Nantong Zhiyun outscored their 0.89 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 60% | Draw 22% | Nantong Zhiyun 17%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Nantong Zhiyun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 61%, Nantong Zhiyun 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.68. Form was overturned, with Nantong Zhiyun winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.