Changchun Yatai 3-4 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai host Wuhan Three Towns at Changchun's People Stadium in Super League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Changchun Yatai's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wuhan Three Towns — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Changchun Yatai, 2 for Wuhan Three Towns and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 1–2 Wuhan Three Towns — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Wuhan Three Towns 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 51% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.23 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.946 / defence 1.112 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.248 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack rating of 1.248, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 63 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 63.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 49%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.71 | Draw 4.09 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.06. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.23 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.946 / def 1.112 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.248 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Wuhan Three Towns xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 4 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 27% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.95x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 63 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
27%
3.71
24%
4.09
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.96
1.73
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
5%
20.84
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.73 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 21W 20D 22L from 63 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 38W 12D 13L across 63 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 10D 10L from their last 31 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 19W 6D 6L across their last 31 away games, a 2.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.19 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 22L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 38W 12D 13L in their last 63 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.39 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 3 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 August 2025: Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 58%, Wuhan Three Towns 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Changchun Yatai) and 64% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 36%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Changchun Yatai's games and 61% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 81% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Changchun Yatai 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Changchun Yatai 3-4 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.23 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.73 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.25 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 49%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 51%, Wuhan Three Towns 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.