Tianjin Teda 3-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Wuhan Zall at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Zall stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Zall have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Wuhan Zall and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 50% versus Wuhan Zall 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 40% | Wuhan Zall 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.29 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.854 / defence 0.886 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.922 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.278. Data: 34 Tianjin Teda games / 34 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Zall 30%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Wuhan Zall 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 40% | Wuhan Zall 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Zall 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.29 / Wuhan Zall 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.854 / def 0.886 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.922 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Wuhan Zall xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 42% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Zall 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.51
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Wuhan Zall xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.04 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 11D 19L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Zall's form line: 8W 13D 21L from 42 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.12 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 4W 5D 10L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.07 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 13D 21L in their last 42 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.00 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2022, when Tianjin Teda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Wuhan Zall specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2022, when Wuhan Zall 0-3 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 63%, Wuhan Zall 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Tianjin Teda) and 42% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall in 32%; Wuhan Zall in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 37% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 42% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Wuhan Zall 3-1 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.29 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Zall 30%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 40%, Wuhan Zall 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.12 PPG, Wuhan Zall 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.