Chengdu Better City 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Monday 24 October 2022 at 08:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium: 1W 5D 1L from 7 Super League appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.14 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Wuyuan River Stadium this season.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 2.00 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Chengdu Better City register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Hangzhou Greentown in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 46% versus Hangzhou Greentown 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chengdu Better City 36% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 0.95 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.813 / defence 0.995 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.003 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.316. Data: 20 Chengdu Better City games / 20 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 26% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 44%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chengdu Better City 71% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 26% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Chengdu Better City 0.95 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.813 / def 0.995 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.003 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Hangzhou Greentown xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 08:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 26% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.00x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
26%
3.78
29%
3.42
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.26
1.31
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.31 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 8D 5L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (10W 9D 3L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.77 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 1W 5D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.59 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (2W 5D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.45 scored and 0.68 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Hangzhou Greentown in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 9W 8D 5L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 10W 9D 3L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.14 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 4-0 on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 71%, Hangzhou Greentown 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Chengdu Better City) and 29% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 43%; Chengdu Better City have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Chengdu Better City's games and 57% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 29% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 0.95 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 26% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 44%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 36%, Hangzhou Greentown 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (22 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (22 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.59 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.