Tianjin Teda 0-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Wuyuan River Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (19 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (19 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 47% versus Wuhan Three Towns 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 37% | Wuhan Three Towns 84%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.08 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.979 / defence 0.917 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.298 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.272. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Tianjin Teda games / 19 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 27% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 47%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.13. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 27% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.08 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.979 / def 0.917 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.298 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Wuhan Three Towns xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 27% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.98x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.30x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 33/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
27%
3.71
26%
3.84
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.59
1.51
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.51 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 7W 5D 7L from 19 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 15W 2D 2L across 19 games — 2.47 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 5W 1D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 3.05 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 63%.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 15W 2D 2L in their last 19 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.14 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, Wuhan Three Towns 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Tianjin Teda and 71% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Tianjin Teda's games and 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 71% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Tianjin Teda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Tianjin Teda 0-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.08 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.51 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.30 / defence 0.84, drawn from 33/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 27% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 47%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 37%, Wuhan Three Towns 84%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (19 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (19 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.