SHANGHAI SIPG 7-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Meizhou Kejia at Dalian Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record at Dalian Sports Center: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Sports Center. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SHANGHAI SIPG at 2.10 PPG versus Meizhou Kejia's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (20 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia trading profile (20 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 40% versus Meizhou Kejia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Meizhou Kejia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.985 / defence 0.677 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.889 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.295. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.677 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 20 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 43% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 25%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Meizhou Kejia 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Meizhou Kejia 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 43% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 / Meizhou Kejia 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.985 / def 0.677 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.889 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Meizhou Kejia xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 10:30 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
SHANGHAI SIPG 7 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 43% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.11
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
1.90
0.78
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.78 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 11W 4D 5L from 20 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 5L across 20 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SHANGHAI SIPG on 1.85 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.60 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 60%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 11W 4D 5L in their last 20 games (1.85 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.00 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.50 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SHANGHAI SIPG 25% BTTS, Meizhou Kejia 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 25% for Meizhou Kejia.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 38%; Meizhou Kejia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 38% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 25% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Meizhou Kejia 7-0 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.12 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.78 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 5.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.98 / defence 0.68 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.89 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 43% | Draw 32% | Meizhou Kejia 25%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 30%, Meizhou Kejia 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.