Tianjin Teda 1-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzhou City Sports Centre plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Chongqing Lifan in Super League, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Suzhou City Sports Centre: 2W 0D 5L from 7 Super League appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chongqing Lifan (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chongqing Lifan have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 86% of relevant games, Chongqing Lifan in 71%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Chongqing Lifan half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Chongqing Lifan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 57% | Chongqing Lifan 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.44 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.969 / defence 1.444 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.749 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.286. Chongqing Lifan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Tianjin Teda games / 14 Chongqing Lifan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Lifan 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Chongqing Lifan 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 86% | Chongqing Lifan 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Lifan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.44 / Chongqing Lifan 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.969 / def 1.444 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.749 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Chongqing Lifan xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 37% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Lifan's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Chongqing Lifan's attack (0.75x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
37%
2.73
29%
3.42
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.83
1.39
Chongqing Lifan xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.39 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 2W 3D 9L from 14 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Lifan, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 9L across 14 games — 0.79 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.64 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 0.79 for Chongqing Lifan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 2W 0D 5L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chongqing Lifan's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chongqing Lifan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 1.14 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 games (0.64 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Chongqing Lifan away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 0.86 PPG; Chongqing Lifan away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
0
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 25 December 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Tianjin Teda, 71% for Chongqing Lifan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Tianjin Teda and 57% for Chongqing Lifan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Lifan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Chongqing Lifan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Tianjin Teda's games and 71% of Chongqing Lifan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 57% of Chongqing Lifan's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chongqing Lifan in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Relegation Round - 1, as Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.44 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.39 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 1.44 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Lifan 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 57%, Chongqing Lifan 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 0.64 PPG, Chongqing Lifan 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.71 average — tighter than their form line. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.