Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Qingdao Youth Island at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.28 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.695 / defence 1.676 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.896 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.431. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 10 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 22% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Youth Island 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Youth Island at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 22% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.28 / Qingdao Youth Island 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.695 / def 1.676 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.896 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Qingdao Youth Island xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 22% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
22%
4.57
21%
4.71
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.43
2.15
Qingdao Youth Island xG
4.57
22%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
12%
8.58
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
3%
39.18
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.15 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
4
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.28 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 2.15 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.69 / defence 1.68 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.90 / defence 1.29, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 22% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.