Sichuan Jiuniu 0-6 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 80%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.758 / defence 1.456 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.436 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.362. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — the away xG of 2.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 38 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 13% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 14.29 | Draw 7.69 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.25. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 13% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 50% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.758 / def 1.456 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.436 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.85
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
50%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Sichuan Jiuniu 0 - 6 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 7% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 80% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. SHANGHAI SIPG away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.44x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 2.85.
These ratings are built from 9/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
7%
15.36
13%
7.43
80%
1.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.59
2.85
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
15.36
7%
Home win
7.43
13%
Draw
1.25
80%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
6%
17.25
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
0%
–
38%
2.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.85 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-6 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Sichuan Jiuniu 0-6 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.85 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 2.85 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.76 / defence 1.46 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.44 / defence 0.71, drawn from 9/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 13% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.