Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns welcome Shandong Luneng to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 7W 0D 3L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shandong Luneng stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shandong Luneng away from home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wuhan Three Towns 2.10 PPG, Shandong Luneng 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 58% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 0.95 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.844 / defence 0.828 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.916 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.409. Shandong Luneng bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Wuhan Three Towns's projected output down. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 40 games and Shandong Luneng's last 40.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 37%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 3.29 | Draw 3.03 | Shandong Luneng 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 0.95 / Shandong Luneng 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.844 / def 0.828 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.916 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Shandong Luneng xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 30% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (0.84) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 40 games and Shandong Luneng's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
30%
3.29
33%
3.03
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.02
1.07
Shandong Luneng xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.07 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 39W 12D 13L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 41W 13D 10L from 64 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 2.02 PPG, Shandong Luneng on 2.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 32 home games (19W 6D 7L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 14W 10D 8L from their last 32 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.28 scored and 0.84 conceded. Wuhan Three Towns's scoring rate against Shandong Luneng's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Shandong Luneng (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 39W 12D 13L in their last 64 games (2.02 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.97 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Nov 2025, when Shandong Luneng won Wuhan Three Towns 1-5 Shandong Luneng.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Wuhan Three Towns
5
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 3-5 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Shandong Luneng 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 53% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 59% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 53% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 66% of Shandong Luneng's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Wuhan Three Towns 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 0.95 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.07 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.84 / defence 0.83 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.92 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 37%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 2.02 PPG, Shandong Luneng 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.