Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 54%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 4W 2D 4L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–6 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.87 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.008 / defence 1.016 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.765 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.433. Hangzhou Greentown bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 40 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 22%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Hangzhou Greentown 4.55. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.87 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.008 / def 1.016 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.765 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 54% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (4 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.11
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.99
1.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
3%
30.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.11 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 18W 18D 27L from 63 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 33W 18D 12L across 63 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 12D 12L from 32 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 14W 12D 6L across 32 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 18W 18D 27L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.12 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
3
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 59% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 72% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 59% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.87 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.11 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 22%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Hangzhou Greentown win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49%, Hangzhou Greentown 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.