Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium plays host to Shenzhen Ruby FC versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 4W 1D 5L at Wuyuan River Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 1.30 for Dalian Aerbin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W, Dalian Aerbin 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2022, ended 1–5 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 56% versus Dalian Aerbin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Dalian Aerbin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.21 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.703 / defence 1.147 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.843 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.316. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 37 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 37%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Dalian Aerbin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% | Dalian Aerbin 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.21 / Dalian Aerbin 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.703 / def 1.147 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.843 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dalian Aerbin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 34% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.70x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.84x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.51
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.27
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.27 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 17W 8D 20L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 23L across 45 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Shenzhen Ruby FC against 1.07 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 8W 4D 9L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.18 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 17W 8D 20L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 9D 23L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 5-1 on 1 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 43%, Dalian Aerbin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 57% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 43% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 48% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 57% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.21 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.27 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.15 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 34% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 37%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Dalian Aerbin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.