SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Dalian Aerbin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 23 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Dalian Aerbin to Dalian Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 November 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 6W 2D 2L at Dalian Sports Center — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Sports Center. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SHANGHAI SIPG, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 41% versus Dalian Aerbin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 43% | Dalian Aerbin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.24 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.291 / defence 0.628 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.829 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.295. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.628 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 36 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Draw 17% | Dalian Aerbin 10%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Dalian Aerbin 10.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Dalian Aerbin 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Draw 17% | Dalian Aerbin 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 44% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.24 / Dalian Aerbin 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.291 / def 0.628 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.829 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Dalian Aerbin xG
44%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 09:30 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 73% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (3 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.29x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.80
10%
10.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.92
0.67
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
10.37
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
11%
9.41
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
1%
97.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.67 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 44 games, going 25W 10D 9L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.09 PPG from 44 outings (13W 9D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 14W 2D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.18 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 25W 10D 9L in their last 44 games (1.93 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 9D 22L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.20 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.80 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
2
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SHANGHAI SIPG 20% BTTS, Dalian Aerbin 45%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 55% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 45% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 55% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Dalian Aerbin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.24 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.67 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.29 / defence 0.63 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Draw 17% | Dalian Aerbin 10%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 43%, Dalian Aerbin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.