Tianjin Teda 5-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mission Hills Football Base Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Hebei Zhongji in Super League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Monday 7 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Tianjin Teda's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 0W 0D 10L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Tianjin Teda's favour (1.10 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Tianjin Teda, 2 for Hebei Zhongji and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2022, ended Tianjin Teda 4–3 Hebei Zhongji — a Tianjin Teda win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 53% versus Hebei Zhongji 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 44% | Hebei Zhongji 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.33 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.964 / defence 0.955 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.592 / defence 1.669. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.287. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.669 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.592 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 37 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 37.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 73% | Draw 17% | Hebei Zhongji 10%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.37 | Draw 5.73 | Hebei Zhongji 10.38. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (73%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Hebei Zhongji's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 7 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 73% | Draw 17% | Hebei Zhongji 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Tianjin Teda 2.33 / Hebei Zhongji 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.964 / def 0.955 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.592 / def 1.669 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Hebei Zhongji xG
47%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Monday 7 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Tianjin Teda 5 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 73% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.59x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 37 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.73
10%
10.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.05
0.73
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
10.38
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
10%
10.23
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
1%
106.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.73 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 13W 11D 21L from 45 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 31L across 45 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hebei Zhongji heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 6W 4D 11L from their last 21 home games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 0W 3D 18L across their last 21 away games, a 0.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hebei Zhongji's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.60 scored and 2.24 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 31L in their last 45 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.05 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 7 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won Tianjin Teda 5-0 Hebei Zhongji on 7 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
2
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2022: Tianjin Teda 5-0 Hebei Zhongji.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 67%, Hebei Zhongji 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Tianjin Teda and 62% for Hebei Zhongji. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 43% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 62% of Hebei Zhongji's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 71% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tianjin Teda run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Hebei Zhongji 5-0 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.33 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.73 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.59 / defence 1.67, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 73% | Draw 17% | Hebei Zhongji 10%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 44%, Hebei Zhongji 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.