Beijing Guoan 0-2 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Beijing Guoan welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Beijing Guoan) versus 1.90 (Wuhan Three Towns). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Wuhan Three Towns and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 1–5 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Wuhan Three Towns 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 65% | Wuhan Three Towns 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.236 / defence 1.035 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.177 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.304. Wuhan Three Towns's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Beijing Guoan games / 23 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 42%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.38 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.236 / def 1.035 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.177 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Wuhan Three Towns xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Beijing Guoan 0 - 2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 33% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.24x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
33%
3.06
25%
3.93
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.97
1.59
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.99
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.59 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 23 games, going 11W 7D 5L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 2.43 PPG from 23 outings (18W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 6W 4D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 2.42 points per game from 12 outings (9W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.91 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 11W 7D 5L in their last 23 games (1.74 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 18W 2D 3L in their last 23 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.83 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 58%, Wuhan Three Towns 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Beijing Guoan and 67% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Beijing Guoan's games and 58% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Beijing Guoan 0-2 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.59 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.24 / defence 1.03 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.18 / defence 0.76, drawn from 37/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 25% | Wuhan Three Towns 42%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 65%, Wuhan Three Towns 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.