Shandong Luneng 5-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 83% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wuhan Zall make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 November 2022 at 09:30 UK time.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Shandong Luneng have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Zall have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shandong Luneng's 2.30 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Wuhan Zall's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Shandong Luneng edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2022, ended Shandong Luneng 2–1 Wuhan Zall — a Shandong Luneng win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Wuhan Zall 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 58% | Wuhan Zall 60%). Note also that Wuhan Zall surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Shandong Luneng recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.92 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.473 / defence 0.611 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.796 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.357. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack rating of 1.473 — their 2.92 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.314 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shandong Luneng's projected output up. Wuhan Zall's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Shandong Luneng have a tight defence (rating 0.611), which is pulling Wuhan Zall's projected output down. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 40 games and Wuhan Zall's last 40.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Wuhan Zall 5%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.21 | Draw 8.22 | Wuhan Zall 18.90. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (83%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 40% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 November 2022 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Wuhan Zall 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Shandong Luneng 2.92 / Wuhan Zall 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.473 / def 0.611 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.796 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Wuhan Zall xG
46%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Shandong Luneng 5 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 83% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.92. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.80x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 40 games and Wuhan Zall's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.6%), 4-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
83%
1.21
12%
8.22
5%
18.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
4 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.58
0.66
Wuhan Zall xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.22
12%
Draw
18.90
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
5%
18.45
Win to Nil
43%
2.35
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.66 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 48 games, going 35W 8D 5L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Wuhan Zall sit at 0.85 PPG from 48 outings (9W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 20W 3D 0L across their last 23 home games, a 2.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Zall have taken 0.74 points per game from their last 23 away games (4W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.04 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 60%.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 35W 8D 5L in their last 48 games (2.35 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 9W 14D 25L in their last 48 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.74 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 26 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 2, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 November 2022: Shandong Luneng 5-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 44%, Wuhan Zall 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shandong Luneng) and 52% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 44% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 52% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 70% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Wuhan Zall 5-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.92 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.66 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.47 / defence 0.61 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.80 / defence 1.31, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 83% | Draw 12% | Wuhan Zall 5%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 58%, Wuhan Zall 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.