Henan Jianye 3-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jinjiang Sports Center plays host to Henan Jianye versus Wuhan Zall in Super League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Tuesday 22 November 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Henan Jianye have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Zall have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Wuhan Zall's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Henan Jianye's favour (1.30 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Henan Jianye edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2022, ended Henan Jianye 2–2 Wuhan Zall — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 43% versus Wuhan Zall 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 40% | Wuhan Zall 60%). Note also that Wuhan Zall surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Henan Jianye recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.95 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.048 / defence 0.852 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.866 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.369. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Henan Jianye's projected output up. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 39 games and Wuhan Zall's last 39.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 58% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Zall 18%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.71 | Draw 4.30 | Wuhan Zall 5.44. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 40% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Jinjiang Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 November 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 58% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Zall 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Henan Jianye 1.95 / Wuhan Zall 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.048 / def 0.852 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.866 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Wuhan Zall xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Tuesday 22 November 2022 at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Henan Jianye 3 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 58% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.05x the league average against Wuhan Zall's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.87x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 39 games and Wuhan Zall's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.30
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.96
1.01
Wuhan Zall xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
38.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.01 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 20W 13D 14L from 47 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 9W 14D 24L across 47 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Henan Jianye by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Zall heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 14W 4D 4L from their last 22 home games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across their last 22 away games, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.06 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 62%.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 games (1.55 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 9W 14D 24L in their last 47 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.09 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 22 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won Henan Jianye 3-0 Wuhan Zall on 22 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 2, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 November 2022: Henan Jianye 3-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Wuhan Zall 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 50% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 46% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 50% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 68% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Wuhan Zall 3-0 at Jinjiang Sports Center, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.95 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.01 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Zall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.87 / defence 1.25, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 58% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Zall 18%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 40%, Wuhan Zall 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.