Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua host Beijing Guoan at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beijing Guoan — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 54% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Beijing Guoan 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.786 / defence 0.786 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.109 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.346. Shanghai Shenhua's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Shanghai Shenhua games / 40 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 35% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 35%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Beijing Guoan 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Beijing Guoan 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 35% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 / Beijing Guoan 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.786 / def 0.786 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.109 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Beijing Guoan xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 25 November 2022 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 35% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.32
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.33
1.17
Beijing Guoan xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.17 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 21W 16D 11L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 22W 13D 13L from 48 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.65 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (12W 8D 3L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 9W 4D 10L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.46 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 60%.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 16D 11L in their last 48 games (1.65 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 22W 13D 13L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.91 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
4
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 48%, Beijing Guoan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 61% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 56% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 61% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Shanghai Shenhua 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.16 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.17 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.79 / defence 0.79 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 35% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 35%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 40%, Beijing Guoan 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.65 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.