Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 38%, yet in-form Shenzhen Ruby FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wuhan Zall travel to Jinjiang Sports Center to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 November 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wuhan Zall stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Wuhan Zall have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Wuhan Zall and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 3–0 Wuhan Zall — a Shenzhen Ruby FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wuhan Zall trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 53% versus Wuhan Zall 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 61% | Wuhan Zall 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.607 / defence 1.339 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.743 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.392. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.607 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.441 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output up. Wuhan Zall's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Zall's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 41 games and Wuhan Zall's last 41.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Zall 38%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.87 | Draw 3.68 | Wuhan Zall 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Zall as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shenzhen Ruby FC (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 28 | Venue: Jinjiang Sports Center • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 November 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Zall 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 / Wuhan Zall 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.607 / def 1.339 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.743 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Wuhan Zall xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Wednesday 30 November 2022 at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 2 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 28) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 35% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.61) and Wuhan Zall's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 41 games and Wuhan Zall's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
35%
2.87
27%
3.68
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.39
Wuhan Zall xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.39 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 8D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Wuhan Zall sit at 0.84 PPG from 49 outings (9W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 9W 3D 12L across their last 24 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Zall have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.02 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 23L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 9W 14D 26L in their last 49 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
1
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 November 2022: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Wuhan Zall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%, Wuhan Zall 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 54% (Wuhan Zall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 46% of games; Wuhan Zall in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 42% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 54% of Wuhan Zall's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 71% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Zall edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 at Jinjiang Sports Center, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.39 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.34 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.74 / defence 1.44, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Zall 38%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 61%, Wuhan Zall 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Wuhan Zall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.