Henan Jianye 1-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 5 as Henan Jianye welcome Dalian Aerbin to Suzhou City Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Suzhou City Sports Centre: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Super League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 0D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.20 (Dalian Aerbin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 50% versus Dalian Aerbin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 17% | Dalian Aerbin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.44 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.946 / defence 1.038 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.844 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Henan Jianye games / 14 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 27%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Dalian Aerbin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 67% | Dalian Aerbin 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Henan Jianye 1.44 / Dalian Aerbin 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.946 / def 1.038 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.844 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Dalian Aerbin xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 42% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.95x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.27
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.57
1.13
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.13 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Henan Jianye come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 8D 5L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (5W 1D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.28 PPG, Dalian Aerbin on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Henan Jianye's home form reads 4W 4D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (3W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.94 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 5W 8D 5L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 1D 12L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.78 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 67%, Dalian Aerbin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Henan Jianye) and 67% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Dalian Aerbin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Henan Jianye's games and 56% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 67% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Dalian Aerbin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Dalian Aerbin 1-0 at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.44 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.13 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 31% | Dalian Aerbin 27%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 17%, Dalian Aerbin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.28 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.