Changchun Yatai 4-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Changchun Yatai welcome Hebei Zhongji to Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 21 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Changchun Yatai have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hebei Zhongji stand at 0W 0D 10L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 3.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 10L across their last 10 road games (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Changchun Yatai's 30% BTTS rate and Hebei Zhongji's 30% (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Hebei Zhongji's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Changchun Yatai, 1 for Hebei Zhongji and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2022, ended Changchun Yatai 7–1 Hebei Zhongji — a Changchun Yatai win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 55% versus Hebei Zhongji 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 51% | Hebei Zhongji 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.90 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.732 / defence 0.911 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.507 / defence 1.775. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.382. Changchun Yatai's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.90. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.775 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Changchun Yatai's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.507 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 39 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 39.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 67% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 11%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.49 | Draw 4.56 | Hebei Zhongji 9.02. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (67%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 30% (last 10 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 67% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.90 / Hebei Zhongji 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.732 / def 0.911 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.507 / def 1.775 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Hebei Zhongji xG
41%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Monday 21 November 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Changchun Yatai 4 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 67% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 39 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
67%
1.49
22%
4.56
11%
9.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.54
0.64
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
9.02
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
2%
60.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.64 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 16D 13L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 0.60 PPG from 47 outings (7W 7D 33L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 10W 8D 7L across their last 25 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 0.36 points per game from their last 25 away games (2W 3D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.57 scored and 2.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 16D 13L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 33L in their last 47 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.52 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.36 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 21 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Changchun Yatai have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2022, when Changchun Yatai won Hebei Zhongji 1-7 Changchun Yatai.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
1
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 November 2022: Changchun Yatai 4-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 48%, Hebei Zhongji 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Changchun Yatai) and 60% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 28% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 36% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 60% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 68% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Changchun Yatai run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Hebei Zhongji 4-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.90 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.64 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.73 / defence 0.91 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.51 / defence 1.77, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 67% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 11%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 51%, Hebei Zhongji 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (47 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (47 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.