Guangzhou R&F 1-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan meet at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Guangzhou R&F's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium this season.
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Beijing Guoan arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guangzhou R&F lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Guangzhou R&F goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 49% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 51% | Beijing Guoan 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 0.98 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.672 / defence 1.241 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.085 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.383. Guangzhou R&F's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Guangzhou R&F games / 39 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 19% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 57%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Beijing Guoan 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou R&F 40% | Beijing Guoan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 19% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Guangzhou R&F 0.98 / Beijing Guoan 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.672 / def 1.241 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.085 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Beijing Guoan xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 21 November 2022 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Guangzhou R&F 1 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 19% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan?
Record (3 meetings): Guangzhou R&F 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guangzhou R&F's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.08x) against Guangzhou R&F's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
19%
5.28
24%
4.22
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
2.84
1.86
Beijing Guoan xG
5.28
19%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
3%
33.98
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.86 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guangzhou R&F come into this having played 47 games, going 10W 11D 26L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.62 PPG from 47 outings (21W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Guangzhou R&F's home form reads 5W 4D 13L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 10W 11D 26L in their last 47 games (0.87 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 0.86 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guangzhou R&F won 5-0 on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou R&F have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guangzhou R&F
1
Draws
2
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-2 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 50%, Beijing Guoan 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Guangzhou R&F and 59% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guangzhou R&F's recent matches and 54% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 59% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Guangzhou R&F 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Guangzhou R&F 1-2 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 0.98 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.86 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.67 / defence 1.24 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 19% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 57%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 51%, Beijing Guoan 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.