Henan Jianye 3-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 25 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.10 PPG clear of Henan Jianye in recent Super League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 2–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 50% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 46% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.68 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.868 / defence 0.847 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.766 / defence 0.520. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.221. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.520 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.766 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Henan Jianye games / 57 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 12% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 64%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 8.33 | Draw 4.17 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.56. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 12% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 42% | xG Henan Jianye 0.68 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.868 / def 0.847 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.766 / def 0.520 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.83
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
42%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 25 August 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Henan Jianye 3 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 12% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 64% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (3 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.87x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.52x — combine the two and it projects 0.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.77x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
12%
8.15
24%
4.22
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.50
1.83
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
8.15
12%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
2%
50.60
33%
3.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 15.0 | 13.7 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.83 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 15D 19L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.11 PPG from 56 outings (36W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 13W 7D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.19 points per game from 27 outings (18W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.89 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 36W 10D 10L in their last 56 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.70 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
0
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, SHANGHAI SIPG 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Henan Jianye) and 56% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 52%; Henan Jianye have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 44% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SHANGHAI SIPG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 0.68 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.83 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.87 / defence 0.85 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.77 / defence 0.52, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 12% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 64%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 46%, SHANGHAI SIPG 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.