Wuhan Three Towns 4-2 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Nantong Zhiyun travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantong Zhiyun stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Wuhan Three Towns are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wuhan Three Towns register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 0 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 5–0 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Nantong Zhiyun in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 70% and Nantong Zhiyun 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wuhan Three Towns 52% | Nantong Zhiyun 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.034 / defence 0.994 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.730 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.225. Data: 57 Wuhan Three Towns games / 23 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 25%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Wuhan Three Towns 70% | Nantong Zhiyun 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.034 / def 0.994 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.730 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Wuhan Three Towns 4 - 2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 44% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 1.03x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.24
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.16
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.89 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 9W 9D 5L from 23 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 3W 10D 10L across 23 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantong Zhiyun heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 4W 5D 2L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 1W 6D 4L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.78 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Nantong Zhiyun in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 9W 9D 5L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 3W 10D 10L in their last 23 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.55 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
1
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Nantong Zhiyun 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Wuhan Three Towns and 9% for Nantong Zhiyun.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 27% of games; Nantong Zhiyun in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 64% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 9% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Nantong Zhiyun 4-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nantong Zhiyun outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.73 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 25%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Nantong Zhiyun 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.