Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Henan Jianye to Puwan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 6D 2L at Puwan Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dalian Aerbin 1.10 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dalian Aerbin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Henan Jianye in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dalian Aerbin, 3 for Henan Jianye and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye trading profile (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 62% versus Henan Jianye 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 54% | Henan Jianye 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.54 xG and Henan Jianye 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.823 / defence 0.937 | Henan Jianye attack 0.841 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.214. Henan Jianye bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Dalian Aerbin games / 55 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 22%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Henan Jianye 4.55. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Aerbin at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 70% | Henan Jianye 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.54 / Henan Jianye 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.823 / def 0.937 | Henan Jianye attack 0.841 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 3 Henan Jianye.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 49% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
Record (5 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 3W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.82x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.48
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.50
0.96
Henan Jianye xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.96 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 16W 17D 22L from 55 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 19L across 55 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Aerbin on 1.18 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 10W 11D 7L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 8W 8D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.42 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Henan Jianye away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.46 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 71%, Henan Jianye 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 39% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 50% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 39% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Dalian Aerbin 0-3 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.54 xG and Henan Jianye 0.96 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Henan Jianye attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 22%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 54%, Henan Jianye 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.18 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.