Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dalian Aerbin face Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dalian Aerbin welcome Henan Jianye to Puwan Stadium in Super League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Aerbin stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Henan Jianye — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dalian Aerbin 1.10 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 60% of Henan Jianye's (from Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Henan Jianye's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 3 for Henan Jianye and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Dalian Aerbin 0–1 Henan Jianye — a Henan Jianye win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye trading profile (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 62% versus Henan Jianye 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 54% | Henan Jianye 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dalian Aerbin surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Henan Jianye have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.54 xG and Henan Jianye 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.823 / defence 0.937 | Henan Jianye attack 0.841 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.214. Henan Jianye's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 56 games and Henan Jianye's last 55.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 22%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.02 | Draw 3.48 | Henan Jianye 4.58. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Aerbin at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 70% (last 10 home games) | Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.54 / Henan Jianye 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.823 / def 0.937 | Henan Jianye attack 0.841 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 3 Henan Jianye.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 49% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.82x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 56 games and Henan Jianye's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.48
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.50
0.96
Henan Jianye xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.96 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 16W 17D 22L from 55 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 19L across 55 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Aerbin on 1.18 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 10W 11D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 8W 8D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.42 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Henan Jianye away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.46 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 19 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2023, when Henan Jianye won Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 August 2023: Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 71%, Henan Jianye 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 39% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 50% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 39% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 54% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Dalian Aerbin 0-3 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.54 xG and Henan Jianye 0.96 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Henan Jianye attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 49% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 22%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 54%, Henan Jianye 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.18 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.