Tianjin Teda 3-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 52%, yet in-form Meizhou Kejia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TEDA Football Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 7D 0L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Meizhou Kejia are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) — Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Meizhou Kejia in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2023, ended Tianjin Teda 1–1 Meizhou Kejia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 52% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 41% | Meizhou Kejia 57%). Note also that Meizhou Kejia surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Tianjin Teda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.79 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.879 / defence 0.947 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.972 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.217. Meizhou Kejia's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 56 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 57.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 23%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.92 | Draw 3.99 | Meizhou Kejia 4.40. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Meizhou Kejia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.79 / Meizhou Kejia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.879 / def 0.947 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.972 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 52% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.88x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.97x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 56 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.99
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.91
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
4%
26.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.12 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 20W 20D 16L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 21W 11D 24L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.32 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 28 home games (10W 12D 6L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 6W 7D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Meizhou Kejia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.36 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 20D 16L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.50 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 June 2025: Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 54%, Meizhou Kejia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tianjin Teda) and 54% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 46% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 54% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 70% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Meizhou Kejia 3-1 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.79 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.97 / defence 1.35, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 23%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 41%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.43 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.