Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hebei Zhongji at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hebei Zhongji face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Jinzhou Stadium in Super League (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 June 2022 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hebei Zhongji's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Hebei Zhongji have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.76 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.988 / defence 0.976 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.253. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 14 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 53% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 1.90 | Draw 3.75 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.85. Hebei Zhongji hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hebei Zhongji at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hebei Zhongji if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Hebei Zhongji 14 games, Wuhan Three Towns 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 June 2022 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 53% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.76 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.988 / def 0.976 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Hebei Zhongji (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Wuhan Three Towns xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 3 June 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 4 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 53% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hebei Zhongji the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.99x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.85x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Hebei Zhongji's last 14 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.75
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.80
1.04
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
4%
28.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.04 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Hebei Zhongji (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hebei Zhongji
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 26 June 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 June 2022: Wuhan Three Towns 5-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Hebei Zhongji 0-4 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.76 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.04 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 53% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Wuhan Three Towns win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.