Wuhan Zall 2-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Zall at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Wuhan Zall welcome Hebei Zhongji to Jinzhou Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 7 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Zall stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jinzhou Stadium, Wuhan Zall have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Wuhan Zall carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Hebei Zhongji 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Zall trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 64% versus Hebei Zhongji 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wuhan Zall 41% | Hebei Zhongji 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.50 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 1.014 / defence 1.000 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.979 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.216. Data: 15 Wuhan Zall games / 15 Hebei Zhongji games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 44% | Draw 25% | Hebei Zhongji 30%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Hebei Zhongji 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Zall at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 80% | Hebei Zhongji 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (15 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 44% | Draw 25% | Hebei Zhongji 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.50 / Hebei Zhongji 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 1.014 / def 1.000 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.979 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Hebei Zhongji xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 10:30 on Tuesday 7 June 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Wuhan Zall 2 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 44% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (2 meetings): Wuhan Zall 0W | Draws 2 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (1.01) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (15/15 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
44%
2.25
25%
3.92
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.69
1.19
Hebei Zhongji xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.19 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Wuhan Zall have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 3W 11D 8L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Zall on 0.91 PPG, Hebei Zhongji on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wuhan Zall have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.68 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 11D 8L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.09 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wuhan Zall
2
Draws
1
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 1, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 2-1 Wuhan Zall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 82%, Hebei Zhongji 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Wuhan Zall) and 36% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Hebei Zhongji?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Wuhan Zall's games and 36% of Hebei Zhongji's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 36% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Zall edge out Hebei Zhongji 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall beat Hebei Zhongji 2-1 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.50 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.19 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 15/15 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 44% | Draw 25% | Hebei Zhongji 30%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 41%, Hebei Zhongji 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 0.91 PPG, Hebei Zhongji 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Zall win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.