Changchun Yatai 4-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou R&F at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F meet at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou R&F have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Guangzhou R&F have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Guangzhou R&F and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Guangzhou R&F goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Guangzhou R&F 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 50% | Guangzhou R&F 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.90 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.056 / defence 0.976 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.992 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 0.847 / away 1.279. Data: 14 Changchun Yatai games / 14 Guangzhou R&F games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou R&F 44%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Guangzhou R&F 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou R&F at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou R&F if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Guangzhou R&F 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (14 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou R&F 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.90 / Guangzhou R&F 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.056 / def 0.976 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.992 / def 1.003 | league avg home 0.847 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou R&F (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Guangzhou R&F xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 4 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Changchun Yatai 4 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 27% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou R&F the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou R&F 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.06) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.99x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou R&F Win
27%
3.73
29%
3.44
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.13
1.24
Guangzhou R&F xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.6 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.24 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 11W 6D 5L from 22 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 7L across 22 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Changchun Yatai by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guangzhou R&F heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 6W 4D 1L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guangzhou R&F's away record stands at 3W 5D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.45 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.00 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Changchun Yatai won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 4, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 24 June 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-3 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 46%, Guangzhou R&F 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Changchun Yatai and 27% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 36%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 27% of games; Guangzhou R&F in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 46% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 27% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Changchun Yatai run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Guangzhou R&F.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Guangzhou R&F 4-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.90 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.24 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 14/14 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou R&F 44%, with Guangzhou R&F to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Changchun Yatai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 50%, Guangzhou R&F 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.