Beijing Guoan 1-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 June 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Beijing Guoan) versus 1.70 (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 54% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 46% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.29 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.053 / defence 0.991 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.999 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.285. Data: 14 Beijing Guoan games / 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 37% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (14 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jun 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 37% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.29 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.053 / def 0.991 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.999 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 June 2022 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 37% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.05x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (14/14 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.75
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.56
1.27
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.27 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 6D 7L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 6W 5D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 0.55 points per game from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.14 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.09 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2024, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 73%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beijing Guoan) and 73% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Beijing Guoan's games and 82% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 73% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shijiazhuang Y. J. defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Beijing Guoan 1-2 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.29 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 14/14 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 37% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 46%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.